Is staying in the shadows an opportunity?

The process bringing the US and Iran to the same table in Islamabad looks, on the surface, like a diplomatic success for Pakistan, but the real story is being written deeper down: this table is an increasingly expanding, multi-layered field of opportunity for Türkiye. Ankara is no longer positioning itself as a classic mediator; it is positioning itself as a power that steers without being seen, that generates influence without taking risk. The most critical advantage of this model is clear: gains grow while costs stay under control.

The value of this process for Türkiye is not only diplomatic but directly geo-economic. A drop in tension in the Strait of Hormuz means securing global energy flows, while it turns Türkiye’s role as an energy-transit country into a strategic lever. Likewise, projects such as the Development Road carry the potential, in a crisis-free equation, to turn Türkiye into the main trade artery running from Basra to Europe. This is not just logistics; it is long-term economic power-building.

But the real inflection point emerges on the financial plane. When risk in the Gulf falls, capital changes direction; funds exiting uncertainty flow to safe harbors. Türkiye is a strong candidate on this front: a large domestic market, developed infrastructure, and strategic geography. A possible normalization could therefore mean Gulf capital turning toward Türkiye more strongly and durably, across real estate, energy, finance and logistics alike.

Ankara’s gain is not only economic, either. Being able to touch the process without being seen at the table grants Türkiye simultaneous diplomatic flexibility with both the West and the region. This is a more valuable advantage than classic power projection. A possible settlement would also contribute directly to Türkiye’s security by limiting new instability along the Iraq and Syria line.

And perhaps the most critical fact of all is this: Türkiye has set up this equation in a way it cannot lose. If the process succeeds, economic gain, geopolitical weight and capital inflow all rise. If it fails, Türkiye activates its security reflexes without bearing diplomatic cost, and holds its position.

In sum, the table in Islamabad is not merely diplomatic traffic; it is a multi-dimensional field of power and opportunity growing for Türkiye through controlled risk.

This article was first published on 12 April 2026 in Bursa Hakimiyet.